President Xi Jinping intends to use force to reunite Taiwan with China by 2027, an influential Chinese scholar who advises Beijing on foreign policy has said.
This remark suggests that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) already has a stronger base than the US military to deal with a contingency involving the self-governing island.
“Once the National Congress of the Communist Party of China ends in the fall of 2022, the scenario of armed unification will become reality. It is very likely that the leaders will move towards armed unification by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA,” said Jin Canrong, a professor at Renmin University’s School of International Studies. , at Nikkei Asia.
Professor Jin is considered one of China‘s most outspoken hawks, with a large number of social media followers. His latest comments reinforced a view previously expressed by Admiral Phil Davidson, the retired commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, who told the Senate Armed Services Committee: “I think the threat is will manifest in this decade, in fact, in the next six years.
Perhaps China has made it clear to the rest of the world that the PLA’s aggressive stance on Taiwan will continue until it takes control of the island. At least 39 Chinese warplanes flew into Taiwan recently, making it the biggest air intrusion into the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) so far this year.
Jin asserted that China already has the power to unify Taiwan by force within a week and that the PLA can overwhelm any US force within 1,000 nautical miles of the coastline. The PLA is believed to have devised a strategy to keep US warships away from Chinese waterways.
Will Japan support Taiwan?
Since Taiwan cannot compete with China militarily, it has focused on building an asymmetric or “porcupine” defense system to deter or resist a ground offensive. The island has also campaigned for information and logistical assistance from other countries, including Japan and the United States.
Japan has openly supported Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression. It was recently reported that the Japanese and American militaries have created a draft coordinated action plan in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island.
Under the plan, the U.S. Marine Corps will set up temporary facilities and deploy troops throughout the Nansei island chain, which stretches from Kyushu, one of Japan’s four main islands, to Taiwan.
Tokyo had previously indicated it would explore options and prepare for “various scenarios” while reiterating close ties with the United States. Japan’s then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe even said, “An emergency in Taiwan is an emergency in Japan.”
Against this notion, Jin said, “Japan should not intervene in a Taiwanese emergency.” He added that the United States was already unable to defeat China. Should Japan intervene, China would also be forced to defeat Japan. Japan must recognize that a new transition is underway, he said.
According to Jin, the prospects for peaceful unification of Taiwan have faded: “It will be difficult with Democratic Progressive Party chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen in power. Yes [an opposition] The Kuomintang candidate wins the presidential election in 2024, relations will improve, but the Kuomintang has no support.
Jin believes Taiwan should engage in unification talks as soon as possible. He argues that the longer it takes, the worse it will be for Taiwan.
China and Japan will commemorate the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations in 2022. Jin criticized the Japanese side, saying that on the 50th anniversary, the Chinese government aspires to restore normalcy but Tokyo has become too conservative, as evidenced by the former Prime Minister. Abe’s remarks about Taiwan, and the situation deteriorated.
Future of China-US Relations
Like many other countries, the United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, he provides significant political and military support to the island, which is a major source of tension between Beijing and Washington.
Jin predicted that this year will be more difficult for China-US relations than 2021. He argued that China will hold its party congress in the fall, while in November the United States will hold its midterm elections. -mandate. With such a busy political calendar, the rivalry between the two countries is bound to be evident.
Taiwan will also host local elections in November. According to Jin, China could be a controversial topic in these elections. “It will have an impact on China-US relations.”
The US, UK and others have declared diplomatic boycotts of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which begin this week. Jin, on the other hand, considered it insignificant.
Every country sends players, including the United States, he said. The event is sponsored by a number of international companies. The absence of senior officials from other countries is not a problem.